Research & Conferences Conference programme Thursday, 5 November 2009 10:30 – 11:00 Opening remarks: Zbigniew Hockuba, National Bank of Poland 11:00 – 12:30 Session 1. Publishing Central Bank Forecasts in Practice Chairman: Ryszard Kokoszczyński, National Bank of Poland Trends in Monetary Policy Transparency (pdf, 279 KB) Presented by Petra M. Geraats: University of Cambridge Communicating monetary policy intentions: The case of Norges Bank (pdf, 382 KB) Presented by Ida Wolden Bache: Norges Bank Authors: Amund Holmsen, Jan F. Qvigstad, Øistein Røisland and Kristin Solberg-Johansen 12:30 – 13:30 Lunch break 13:30–15:30 Session 2. On Forecast Accuracy Chairman: Mateusz Pipień, National Bank of Poland The Superiority of Greenbook Forecasts and the Role of Recessions (pdf, 154 KB) Presented by N. Kundan Kishor: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Putting the New Keynesian DSGE Model to the Real-Time Forecasting Test (pdf, 632 KB) Presented by Marcin Kolasa: National Bank of Poland Co-authors: Michał Rubaszek, Paweł Skrzypczyński A Forecasting Metric for Evaluating DSGE Models for Policy Analysis (pdf, 968 KB) Presented by Abhishek Gupta: Johns Hopkins University Session discussants: Wojciech Charemza, University of Leicester Jesus Crespo-Cuaresma, University of Innsbruck 15:30–16:00 Coffee break 16:00 – 17:30 Session 3. Central Bank Forward Guidance: Impact on Financial Markets Chairman: Andrzej Sławiński, National Bank of Poland Gauging the Effectiveness of Central Bank Forward Guidance (pdf, 318 KB) Presented by Magnus Andersson: European Central Bank Co-author: Boris Hofmann Discussed by Giuseppe Ferrero: Bank of Italy The reception of public signals in financial markets: What if Central Bank Communication Becomes Stale? (pdf, 1.3 mB) Presented by Michael Ehrmann: European Central Bank Co-author: David Sondermann Discussed by Georgios Chortareas: University of Athens 20:00 Gala dinner Friday, 6 November 2009 10:00 – 12:15 Session 4. Publishing Interest Rate Forecast Chairman: Aleksander Welfe, University of Lodz & National Bank of Poland Announcement of Future Policy Intentions and Learning (pdf, 355 KB) Presented by: Giuseppe Ferrero, Bank of Italy Co-author: Alessandro Secchi Discussed by Jacek Suda, Bank of France The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable? (pdf, 200 KB) Presented by Michał Brzoza-Brzezina: National Bank of Poland Co-author: Adam Kot Discussed by Volker Hahn: CER-ETH Zurich Anticipated Alternative Instrument-Rate Paths in Policy Simulations (pdf, 375 KB) Presented by Stefan Laséen: Sveriges Riksbank Co-author: Lars E.O. Svensson Discussed by Grzegorz Grabek: National Bank of Poland 12:15–13:15 Lunch 13:15–14:45 Session 5. Forecast and Target Transparency Chairman: Zbigniew Polański, National Bank of Poland Central Bank Forecast Transparency, Incentives, and Inflation Targets  Presented by Georgios Chortareas: University of Athens Co-author: Kalliopi-Maria Zekente Discussed by Axel Lindner: Halle Institute for Economic Research Policy Announcements and Welfare (pdf, 309 KB) Presented by Christian A. Stoltenberg: University of Amsterdam Co-author: Vadym Lepetyuk Discussed by: Michał Rubaszek, National Bank of Poland 14:45–15:00 Closing remarks: Ryszard Kokoszczyński, National Bank of Poland 15:00 Transport to the airport