Most central banks with direct inflation targets are communicating their inflation and output forecasts to the public. Some banks have gone one step further by showing their expected future path of interest rates. A comparison of the methods applied by central banks in preparing and releasing their forecasts indicates that in many areas there are no unique solutions. Moreover, the profession is sill far from consensus as regards macroeconomic effects of forecasts publication. The conference aims at providing a forum for the presentation and discussion of the research in areas closely related to the best practices in publishing forecasts by central banks. In particular, the following topics will be covered:
As the special focus of the conference is to provoke discussion on the subject of publishing the future path of interest rates, papers related to this issue are especially welcome.
- the macroeconomic effects of forecast publication,
- the impact of publishing macroeconomic forecasts on financial markets,
- methods used to prepare macroeconomic forecasts,
- the experience with communicating macroeconomic forecasts to the public.
We would like to inform that on 4 November 2009 the National Bank of Poland is also organizing a workshop "Experiences and Challenges of Forecasting in Central Banks", which covers more technical aspects of preparing forecasts in central banks. The interested participants of the conference are welcome to attend this event. More information on the workshop can be found on the webpage http://www.nbp.pl/forecasting2009
Proposals in the form of research papers or extended drafts should be sent to Conference2009@nbp.pl by 31 July 2009. We would appreciate if authors submitting papers would indicate whether they are willing to act as discussants. The acceptance decision will be sent to authors by 15 September 2009. Authors should confirm their participation by 30 September 2009.
Authors of the accepted papers will be offered the opportunity to publish their submission in the NBP Working Paper Series.
Organizing Committee of the conference:
- Zbigniew Hockuba
- Mateusz Pipień
- Ryszard Kokoszczyński
- Michał Brzoza-Brzezina
- Michał Rubaszek
The National Bank of Poland covers conference and accommodation expenses for speakers and discussants. In special cases the conference organizers might also consider reimbursement of travel expenses.
National Bank of Poland
Phone (48) 22 653 1175 Fax (48) 22 826 99 35
More details about the conference are available at:
Call for papers - pdf file (8 kB)