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Research & Conferences

2012 CENTRAL BANK
MACROECONOMIC MODELING WORKSHOP:
MODELING IMBALANCES

National Bank of Poland
September 13-14, 2012

Programme

Thursday, 13 September 2012,
  8:15 –   8:45 Registration and welcome coffee
  8:45 –   9:00 Welcome address by Andrzej Raczko, Member of the Management Board, National Bank of Poland
  9:00 – 10:00 The Financial Cycle and Macroeconomics: What Have We Learnt?
Keynote speech by Claudio Borio, Bank for International Settlements
10:00 – 10:30 Coffee break
10:30 – 12:15
Session I
Financial Imbalances
Chairman: Ryszard Kokoszczyński, National Bank of Poland, University of Warsaw

Monetary and Macroprudential Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area
Presented by Dominic Quint, Free University Berlin
Co-author: Pau Rabanal, International Monetary Fund
Discussant: Olivier Loisel, Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique

Macroprudential Policy and Imbalances in the Euro Area
Presented by Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, National Bank of Poland, Warsaw School of Economics
Co-authors: Marcin Kolasa, Krzysztof Makarski, National Bank of Poland, Warsaw School of Economics
Discussant: Yusuf Soner Başkaya, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
12:15 – 13:15 Lunch break
13:15 – 15:00
Session II
Housing Imbalances
Chairman: Claudio Borio, Bank for International Settlements

Econometric Regime Shifts and the US Subprime Bubble
Presented by André K. Anundsen, University of Oslo
Discussant: Christian Heebøll-Christensen, University of Copenhagen

House Prices, Credit Growth, and Excess Volatility:
Implications for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy

Presented by Kevin J. Lansing, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Norges Bank
Co-authors: Paolo Gelain, Norges Bank and Caterina Mendicino, Bank of Portugal
Discussant: Alessandro Notarpietro, Banca d’Italia
15:00 – 15:30 Coffee break
15:30 – 17:15
Session III
Imbalances in the Corporate Sector
Chairman: Douglas Laxton, International Monetary Fund

Corporate Debt Structure and the Financial Crisis
Presented by Fiorella De Fiore, European Central Bank
Co-author: Harald Uhlig, University of Chicago
Discussant: Paolo Gelain, Norges Bank

Debt Overhang in a Business Cycle Model
Presented by Filippo Occhino, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Co-author: Andrea Pescatori, International Monetary Fund
Discussant: Jacek Suda, Banque de France
19:00 Dinner (by invitation)

Friday, 14 September 2012
  9:00 – 10:00 Issues in Extending Inflation-Forecast-Targeting Regimes
to Include Countercyclical Macro-Prudential Policies

Keynote speech by Douglas Laxton, International Monetary Fund
10:00 – 10:30 Coffee break
10:30 – 12:15
Session IV
Fiscal Imbalances
Chairman: Fiorella de Fiore, European Central Bank

Aging, Labour Market Dynamics and Fiscal Imbalances
Presented by Olivier Pierrard, Banque Centrale du Luxembourg
Co-authors: Luca Marchiori, Banque Centrale du Luxembourg
  and Henri S. Sneessens, Université du Luxembourg, IZA
Discussant: Krzysztof Makarski, National Bank of Poland, Warsaw School of Economics

Macroeconomic Effects of Sovereign Restructuring in a Monetary Union:
A Model-Based Approach

Presented by Massimiliano Pisani, Banca d’Italia
Co-author: Lorenzo Forni, International Monetary Fund
Discussant: Dirk Muir, International Monetary Fund
12:15 – 13:15 Lunch break
13:15 – 15:00
Session V
Imbalances in the Euro Area
Chairman: Andrzej Sławiński, National Bank of Poland, Warsaw School of Economics

The European Monetary Union and Imbalances: Is It an Anticipation Story?
Presented by Daniele Siena, Università Bocconi

Fiscal Risk in a Monetary Union
Presented by Betty C. Daniel, University at Albany
Co-author: Christos Shiamptanis, Ryerson University
Discussant: István Kónya, Magyar Nemzeti Bank
15:00 – 15:10 Briefing on the Central Bank Macroeconomic Modeling Workshop in 2013
Yusuf Soner Başkaya, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
15:10 – 15:25 Closing remarks: Andrzej Sławiński, National Bank of Poland, Warsaw School of Economics

NBP interest rates

Reference rate 1.50
Lombard rate 2.50
Deposit rate 0.50
Rediscount rate 1.75

Exchange rates

Table of 2016-06-30
1 EUR4.4255
1 USD3.9803
1 CHF4.0677
1 GBP5.3655
100 JPY3.8688

Economic outlook

Monthly data

Quarterly data

Financial markets

Numismatics

Contact

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Świętokrzyska 11/21
00-919 Warszawa
Poland

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