Narodowy Bank Polski


Research & Conferences


National Bank of Poland,
29-30 November, 2012
Warsaw, Poland


Thursday, 29 November 2012

  8:30 –   9:00 Registration and welcome coffee
  9:00 –   9:15 Opening remarks by Andrzej Raczko, Member of the Management Board, National Bank of Poland
  9:15 – 10:15
Keynote lecture by Roy Batchelor, Cass Business School, London
Survey Expectations in the New Economics
10:15 – 10:30 Coffee break
10:30 – 12:30
Session 1: Testing sticky information model
Chairperson: Christian Muller, Zurich University of Applied Sciences

News on inflation and the epidemiology of inflation expectations

Author: Damjan Pfajfar, CentER, EBC and University of Tilburg
Co-author: Emiliano Santoro, ITEMQ, Catholic University of Milan and University of Copenhagen

Microdata evidence for imperfect information in inflation expectations

Author: Lena Dräger, University of Hamburg
Co-author: Michael J. Lamla, ETH Zurich and KOF Swiss Economic Institute

Households' disagreement on inflation expectations
and socioeconomic media exposure in Germany

Author: Jan-Oliver Menz, Deutsche Bundesbank
Co-author: Philipp Poppitz, University of Hamburg

Household inflation expectations in the UK: exploiting the cross-sectional dimension

Author: Alina Barnett, Bank of England
Co-authors: Haroon Mumtaz, Bank of England
Matthias Paustian, Bank of England
Silvia Pezzini, Bank of England
12:30 – 13:30 Lunch
13:30 – 14:30
Session 2: Process of expectations formation I
Chairperson: Stefan Palmqvist, Sveriges Riksbank

Are individual survey expectations internally consistent?

Author: Maritta Paloviita, Bank of Finland
Co-author: Matti Viren, Bank of Finland and University of Turku

The role of revisions and uncertainty in professional forecasts

Author: Eva A. Arnold, University of Hamburg
14:30 – 14:45 Coffee break
14:45 – 16:15
Session 3: Process of expectations formation II
Chairperson: Christina Gerberding, Deutsche Bundesbank

How rational are rational expectations? New evidence from well-known survey data

Author: Novella Maugeri, Universita degli Studi di Siena

Beyond Rationality: Understanding Consumers’ Perceptions and Expectations of Inflation

Author: Fabien Curto Millet, Google

Inflation expectations in Poland

Author: Tomasz Łyziak, National Bank of Poland
19:00 Dinner (by invitation)

Friday, 30 November 2012

  9:00 – 10:00
Keynote lecture by Peter Sinclair, University of Birmingham and Bank of England
Inflation, inflation expectations and financial stability
10:00 – 10:15 Coffee break
10:15 – 12:15
Session 4: Exploiting density forecasts
Chairperson: Ryszard Kokoszczyński, University of Warsaw and National Bank of Poland

The measurement and behaviour of uncertainty:
evidence from the ECB survey of professional forecasters

Author: Robert Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Co-authors: Joseph Song, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Joseph Tracy, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

How informative are the subjective density forecasts of macroeconomists?

Author: Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
Co-authors: Thomas Kostka, European Central Bank
Federico Masera, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid

Tails of inflation forecasts and tales of monetary policy

Author: Philippe Andrade, Banque de France
Co-authors: Eric Ghysels, University of North Carolina and Kenan-Flagler Business School
Julien Idier, Banque de France and European Central Bank

A new approach to probabilistic surveys of professional forecasters
and its application in the monetary policy context

Author: Ewa Stanisławska, National Bank of Poland
Co-authors: Halina Kowalczyk, National Bank of Poland
Tomasz Łyziak, National Bank of Poland
12:15 – 13:15 Lunch
13:15 – 14:45
Session 5: Inflation expectations and monetary policy
Chairperson: Andrzej Sławiński, Director General of the Economic Institute, National Bank of Poland

Monetary policy, banking and heterogeneous agents

Author: Marcin Wolski, University of Amsterdam and University of Bielefeld
Co-author: Cees Diks, University of Amsterdam

Assessing shocks to inflation expectations in a data rich environment

Author: Luca Onorante, European Central Bank
Co-author: Lucia Alessi, European Central Bank

Relevance of survey data on inflation expectations for monetary policy

Author: Christina Gerberding, Deutsche Bundesbank
14:45 – 15:00 Closing remarks by Andrzej Sławiński, Director General of the Economic Institute, National Bank of Poland

NBP interest rates

Reference rate 1.50
Lombard rate 2.50
Deposit rate 0.50
Rediscount rate 1.75

Exchange rates

Table of 2016-10-26
1 EUR4.3178
1 USD3.9517
1 CHF3.9862
1 GBP4.8268
100 JPY3.7940

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Narodowy Bank Polski
Świętokrzyska 11/21
00-919 Warszawa

+48 22 185 10 00
+48 22 185 85 18
NIP: 525-000-81-98
REGON: 000002223
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