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Core Inflation Up in November

Date: 20-12-2011

NBP Data: Inflation net of food and energy prices amounted to 3.0 % in year-on-year terms in November, as compared with 2.8% in October and 2.6% in September.

Core inflation data announced on 20 December show all its four measures to have risen on their October levels. Thus, inflation:

  • net of administered (state-controlled) prices stood at 4.4% against 3.9% observed in October and 3.5% in September;
  • net of the most volatile prices amounted to 4.0% against 3.7% in October and 3.5% in September;
  • net of food and energy prices was running at 3.0%, against 2.8% in October and 2.6% in September;
  • the so-called 15-percent trimmed mean (which excludes the impact of 15% of the most volatile prices on the consumer basket) amounted to 4.6%, up from 4.3% in October and 4.2% in September.

The increase in core inflation indices followed a rise in the CPI (consumer price index), up to 4.8% from 4.3% in October and 3.9% in September. The National Bank of Poland computes the four core inflation indices on a monthly basis, which helps understand inflation developments in Poland. This is because the CPI on its own shows the average movement in the price of a whole basket of staple consumer goods while core inflation indices allow us to analyse price changes in various segments of this basket. Thus, sources of inflation can be identified better and future inflation trends forecast more accurately. Core inflation indices also help us determine how lasting the current inflation trend is, or to what extent it is driven by e.g. short-lived price hikes triggered by unpredictable factors. The measure of core inflation which is most frequently used by analysts is inflation net of food and energy prices. It captures the price movements which are relatively responsive to the monetary policy as conducted by the central bank. On the other hand, energy prices (including those of fuels), are not set in the domestic market but in the global markets, sometimes as a result of speculation, while food prices depend to a great extent on the weather and the current situation in the domestic and worldwide agricultural market.

See: NBP announcement on November 2011 core inflation

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