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Core Inflation Eases Down in March

Date: 20-04-2012

NBP data: March 2012 saw a substantial decline in all the measures of core inflation. Inflation net of food and energy prices amounted to 2.4%, thus hitting the lowest point since July 2011.

According to the release by the National Bank of Poland of 20 April 2012, all the four indices of core inflation decreased in March. Thus, inflation:

  • excluding administered prices (those subject to state control) reached 3.5%, as against 4.0% in February and 3.7% in January;
  • excluding the most volatile prices amounted to 3.4%, as against 3.6% in February and 3.4% in January;
  • net of food and energy prices amounted to 2.4%, as against 2.6% in February and 2.5% in January;
  • the so-called trimmed mean (excluding the impact of 15% of the price basket characterised by the highest and lowest growth rates) was running at 4.1%, as against 4.3% in February and January.
The CPI (consumer inflation) index, previously announced by GUS, stood at 3.9% in March and was also lower than in the two preceding months, when it had amounted to, respectively, 4.3% and 4.1%.

The National Bank of Poland computes four core inflation indices on a monthly basis, which helps understand the nature of inflation developments in Poland. While the CPI shows the average movement in the price of a whole basket of consumer goods, in calculating core inflation indices price changes in various segments of the basket are addressed. Thus, sources of inflation can be identified better and its trends forecast can be identified more accurately. We can also determine how lasting the observed inflation trend is, or whether and to what extent it is driven by e.g. short-lived price hikes triggered by unpredictable factors. The core inflation measure most frequently used by analysts is inflation excluding food and energy prices. It captures movements in those prices that are fairly responsive to the central bank's monetary policy. On the other hand, energy prices (including those of fuels) are not set domestically, but are determined in the global markets, sometimes as a result of speculation, while food prices depend, among other things, on the weather and conditions prevailing in the domestic and worldwide agricultural market.

See: the NBP announcement on March 2012 core inflation

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