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Core inflation in April

Date: 22-05-2012

NBP data: April saw an upward revision in three out of four core inflation measures, following their decline in March. Inflation excluding food and energy prices ran at 2.7% as compared to 2.4% registered a month before.

On 22 May 2012, the National Bank of Poland released a report on April’s core inflation. Core inflation readings for April were as follows:

  • inflation net of administered prices (government-controlled prices) stood at 3.5%, i.e. the same level as in March 2012, and below the February level of 4.0%;
  • inflation net of most volatile variables stood at 3.6% as compared to 3.4% in March and 3.6% in February;
  • inflation net of food and energy prices stood at 2.7% as compared to 2.4% in March and 2.6% in February;
  • the so-called trimmed average of 15% (eliminating the impact of 15% of prices showing the lowest and highest growth rate) stood at 4.2% as compared to 4.1% in March and 4.3% in February.

The CPI (Consumer Price Index) published previously by the GUS stood at 4.0% in April as compared to 3.9% in March and 4.3% in February.

The National Bank of Poland calculates monthly four core inflation measures to better understand the sources of inflation in Poland. The general Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the average movement in prices of the whole basket of mass consumption products. While calculating core inflation, price movements in various segments of this basket are analysed. This allows to better identify the sources of inflation and forecast future trends more precisely. This also helps to determine whether inflation is a long-term phenomenon and to what extent it is affected by such factors as short-lived price shocks triggered by unexpected factors. Core inflation net of food and energy prices is the measure most often used by analysts. It reflects movements in prices that can be relatively strongly affected by the central bank’s monetary policy, while prices of energy (including fuel prices) are determined in global markets rather than in the domestic market, and are sometimes affected by speculation. Food prices are largely dependent on such factors as weather conditions and current situation in the domestic and global agricultural markets.

See also: Information of the NBP on core inflation in April 2012

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