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Core Inflation in September

Date: 20-10-2012

NBP data: September 2012 brought a decline in three out of four core inflation measures. Inflation net of food and energy prices dropped to 1.9%, hitting its lowest point in the last 18 months.

According to the latest monthly release published by the National Bank of Poland on 22 October 2012, three out of four core inflation measures declined in September. Thus:

  • inflation excluding administered (state-controlled) prices reached 3.4% , the same level as in August, as against 3.5% in July;
  • inflation excluding the most volatile prices amounted to 2.9% as compared to 3.0% in August and 3.3% in July;
  • inflation net of food and energy prices, stood at 1.9% as compared to 2.1% in August and 2.3% in July;
  • the so-called 15% trimmed mean (excluding the impact of 15% of the price basket characterised by the highest and lowest growth rates) ran at 3.7% as against 3.8% in August and 3.9% in July.

The September CPI (consumer price inflation) published by the GUS, stood at 3.8%, the same level as in August, as compared to 4.0% in July.

The National Bank of Poland computes the four core inflation indices on a monthly basis, which helps understand the nature of inflation developments in Poland. While the CPI shows the average movement in prices in the whole, broad basket of consumer goods, by calculating core inflation measures, price changes in various segments of the basket are determined. Thus, sources of inflation can be identified better and future trends forecast more accurately. Furthermore, it can be ascertained to what degree the observed inflation trend is a lasting phenomenon, and to what extent it is driven by e.g. short-lived price hikes triggered by incidental factors. The core inflation measure most frequently used by analysts is inflation excluding food and energy prices. It captures movements in prices which are fairly responsive to the central bank's monetary policy. On the other hand, energy prices (including those of fuels) are not set domestically, but determined in the global markets, sometimes as a result of speculation. Also food prices are heavily dependent on, among other things, the weather and conditions prevailing in the domestic and global agricultural markets.

See also: Information of the NBP on core inflation in September 2012

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