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Core Inflation Declines in May

Date: 20-06-2012

NBP data: May 2012 saw all core inflation measures decline. Inflation net of food and energy prices decreased from 2.7% in April 2012 to 2.3% reaching the lowest point since April 2011.

On 20 June, the National Bank of Poland released data on core inflation in May. Thus, inflation:

  • excluding administered (state-controlled) prices reached 3.0%, as against 3.5% both in April and March;
  • excluding the most volatile prices amounted to 3.3%, as against 3.6% in April and 3.4% in March;
  • net of food and energy prices amounted to 2.3%, as against 2.7% in April and 2.4% in March;
  • the so-called 15% trimmed mean (excluding the impact of 15% of the price basket characterised by the highest and lowest growth rates) was running at 3.9% (as against 4.2% in April and 4.1% in March).
The CPI (consumer price inflation) index, previously announced by GUS, stood at 3.6% in May as compared with 4.0% in April and 3.9% in March.

The National Bank of Poland computes four core inflation indices on a monthly basis, which helps understand the nature of inflation developments in Poland. While the CPI shows the average movement in the price of a whole basket of consumer goods, by calculating core inflation indices, price changes in various segments of the basket are addressed. Thus, sources of inflation can be identified, and future trends be forecast more accurately. Furthermore, it can be determined to what degree an observed inflation trend is a lasting phenomenon, and to what extent it is driven by e.g. short-lived price hikes triggered by incidental factors. The core inflation measure most frequently used by analysts is inflation excluding food and energy prices. It captures movements in prices which are fairly responsive to the central bank's monetary policy. On the other hand, energy prices (including those of fuels) are not set domestically, but determined in the global markets, sometimes as a result of speculation. Also food prices depend heavily on, among other things, the weather and conditions prevailing in the domestic and global agricultural markets.

See also: Information of the NBP on core inflation in May 2012

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