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Core Inflation in June

Date: 20-07-2012

NBP data: In June, two of the four inflation measures rose, with the other two remaining stable. Inflation net of food and energy prices was unchanged at 2.3%.

On 20 July, the National Bank of Poland released data on core inflation in June. Thus, inflation:

  • excluding administered (state-controlled) prices reached 3.8%, as against 3.0% in May and 3.5% in April;
  • excluding the most volatile prices amounted to 3.3%, unchanged on May and comparing with 3.6% in April;
  • net of food and energy prices amounted to 2.3%, again unchanged on May and comparing with 2.7% in April;
  • the so-called trimmed mean (excluding the impact of 15% of the price basket characterised by the highest and lowest growth rates) was running at 4.0%, as against 3.9% in May and 4.2% in April.
The previously announced CPI (consumer inflation) index calculated by GUS stood at 4.3% in June as compared with 3.6% in May and 4.0% in April.

TEvery month the National Bank of Poland computes four core inflation indices, thus helping to highlight the nature of inflation developments in Poland. This is because, while the CPI shows the average movement in the price of a whole basket of consumer goods, calculating core inflation indices addresses price changes in various segments of the basket. Thus, sources of inflation can be identified more precisely and future trends forecast more accurately. Furthermore, it can be determined to what degree the observed inflation trend is a lasting phenomenon, and to what extent it is driven by e.g. short-lived price hikes triggered by incidental factors. The core inflation measure most frequently used by analysts is inflation net of food and energy prices. It captures movements in prices which are fairly responsive to the central bank's monetary policy. On the other hand, energy prices (including those of fuels) are not set domestically, but determined in the global markets, sometimes as a result of speculation, while food prices depend, among other things, on the weather and conditions prevailing in the domestic and worldwide agricultural market.

See also: Information of the NBP on core inflation in June 2012

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