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Core Inflation in October

Date: 21-11-2012

NBP data: In similarity to the previous month, October 2012 saw three of the four core inflation measures decline. Only inflation net of food and energy prices remained unchanged at the previous month’s level of 1.9%.

According to the National Bank of Poland release posted on 21 November 2012, three of the four core inflation measures decreased, in parallel to the situation the month before. Thus, inflation:

  • excluding administered (state-controlled) prices was running at 3.0%, as against 3.4% in both September and August;
  • excluding the most volatile prices amounted to 2.8%, as against 2.9% in September and 3.0% in August;
  • net of food and energy prices amounted to 1.9%, unchanged on September, and compared with 2.1% in August;
  • the so-called trimmed mean (excluding the impact of 15% of the price basket characterised by the highest and lowest growth rates) was running at 3.4%, as against 3.7% in September and 3.8% in August.

The previously announced CPI (consumer inflation) index as calculated by the Central Statistical Office (GUS), stood at 3.4% in October, against 3.8% in both September and August;

The National Bank of Poland computes the four core inflation indices on a monthly basis, in order to highlight the nature of inflation developments in Poland. Those measures are helpful because, while the CPI shows average price movement across a whole broad basket of consumer goods, by calculating core inflation indices we can address price changes in its various segments. Thus, sources of inflation can be identified more precisely, and future trends forecast more accurately. Furthermore, it can be determined to what degree the observed inflation trend is a lasting phenomenon, and to what extent it is driven by e.g. short-lived price hikes triggered by incidental factors. The core inflation measure most frequently used by analysts is inflation excluding food and energy prices. It captures movements in prices which are fairly responsive to the central bank's monetary policy. On the other hand, energy prices (including those of fuels) are not set domestically, but determined in the global markets, sometimes as a result of speculation. Also food prices to a large extent depend on, among other things, the weather and conditions prevailing in the domestic and worldwide agricultural market.

See also: The NBP announcement on October 2012 core inflation

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