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Slight Change in Inflation Expectations in April

Date: 30-04-2012

NBP data: The surveyed private individuals expect inflation to average 4.3% over the next 12 months. The corresponding March and February figures were 4.2% and 5.0% respectively.

On 30 April, the National Bank of Poland posted its monthly release on inflation expectations of households. It shows a slight pick-up in these expectations in April, following three months of a decrease. The composite index gauging average inflation as expected over the next 12 months stood at 4.3%, i.e. 0.1 percentage point higher than a month ago. In February, it stood at 5.0%, following 5.2% observed in January.

The percentage of the public believing prices to rise faster than recently in the next 12 months had risen from 24.3% in March to 26.2% in April. This was accompanied by an increase – from 49.8% to 53.9% - in the share of the individuals expecting prices to grow at the same pace as in the previous 12 months. On the other hand, the percentage of respondents anticipating that prices will decelerate had declined from 15.0% to 12.3%

The National Bank of Poland systematically surveys inflation expectations of private individuals as well as entrepreneurs, financial analysts and professional forecasters. The findings constitute one of the inputs to the monetary policy decision-making process.

See also: inflation expectations of individuals, April 2012

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