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Lower Inflation Expectations of Individuals in December

Date: 31-12-2012

NBP data: The monthly index of inflation expectations of private individuals has been on a downward trend since August 2012. In December, the inflation rate as expected by respondents in the next 12 months fell to an average of 3.4%.

According to the monthly release on inflation expectations of private individuals, published by the NBP on 31 December, the average inflation index as expected by consumers over the next 12 months has declined to 3.4%. In November, it stood at 3.4%. The index of inflation expectations of individuals has been on a steady downward trend since August, when it amounted to 4.4%, and has now hit the lowest point since February 2011.

At the time of the survey, the November CPI index of 3.4% was already known to the public.

The structure of expectations has changed. The percentage of the public believing prices to rise faster in the future than recently rose from 20.3% in November to 23.6 % in December. The share of respondents expecting prices to rise at the same pace in the next 12 months has been relatively stable – in December this opinion was shared by 48.9% of respondents. The number of optimists anticipating inflation to decelerate has diminished from 20.4% down to 17.9%.

The National Bank of Poland examines, on a regular basis, inflation expectations of individuals - as well as entrepreneurs, financial analysts and professional forecasters. These constitute one of the inputs to the monetary policy decision-making process.

See also: ► Inflation expectations of individuals, December 2012

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