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Lower inflation expectations of individuals

Date: 29-06-2012

NBP data: In June consumer optimism as regards inflation outlook improved. In the opinion of survey respondents the average inflation rate in the coming 12 months will amount to 3.7%.

On 29 June 2012, the National Bank of Poland released a monthly report on household inflation expectations. A synthetic measure of average expected inflation over the coming 12-month period reached 3.7 % in June 2012, i.e. the lowest level since February 2011. In April and May 2012 the measure stood at 4.3%.

Positive changes were also observed in the structure of expectations. The percentage of persons claiming that the coming 12-month period will see prices growing faster than in the recent period declined from 28.6% in May to 23.6% in June 2012, whereas the number of optimists who are confident that prices will be rising less rapidly than before went up from 16.0% to 18.1%. Half of the respondents (49.9% as against 46.4% in May) think that price growth will remain unchanged over the upcoming 12-month period.

The National Bank of Poland analyses, on a regular basis, inflation expectations expressed not only by individuals but also by entrepreneurs, financial analysts and professional forecasters. They are one of the inputs to monetary policy decisions.

See also: inflation expectations of individuals, June 2012

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