Improved Structure of Inflation Expectations in March
NBP data: The average inflation rate as expected by individuals over the coming 12 months has been put at 4.2%. This is against 5.0% recorded in February and 5.2% recorded in January.
The monthly release of data on household inflation expectations published on 30 March shows that the structure of inflation expectations had improved on the preceding months.
The percentage of the public believing that in the next 12 months prices will rise faster than so far had fallen from 29.9% in February to 24.3% in March. Nearly half of the respondents represent the view that prices will continue to grow at the same pace as in the previous 12 months. In March, 49.8% of the respondents were of that opinion, as opposed to 46.8% in February. At the same time, the share of respondents anticipating the prices to rise more slowly had increased to 15.0% (in February, 13.6% of the respondents were of that opinion).
The average inflation rate as expected by individuals over the coming 12 months amounted to 4.2%, as compared with 5.0% in February.
At the time of the March survey, the actual January CPI inflation index, amounting to 4.1%, had already been made public.
The National Bank of Poland examines, on a regular basis, inflation expectations of individuals as well as entrepreneurs, financial analysts and professional forecasters. These constitute one of the inputs to the monetary policy decision-making process.
See also: inflation expectations of individuals, March 2012