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May inflation expectations of individuals

Date: 31-05-2012

NBP data: In the opinion of the surveyed persons, the average inflation rate in the coming 12 months will stand at 4.3%. The same inflation forecasts were expressed by individuals a month before.

According to the NBP’s monthly report on household inflation expectations, published on 31 May 2012, the synthetic measure of average expected inflation over the coming 12- month period, reached 4.3%, i.e. the same level as a month before. In March 2012 it stood at 4.2%, whereas in February at 5.0%.

Certain changes have been observed in the structure of expectations. The percentage of persons claiming that the coming 12-month period will see prices growing faster than in the recent period increased from 26.2% in April to 28.6% in May. At the same time, the number of optimists believing prices to be rising less rapidly than before went up from 12.3% to 16.0%. There was a marked decline (from 53.9% to 46.4%) in the number of persons confident that price growth will remain unchanged.

The National Bank of Poland analyses, on a regular basis, inflation expectations expressed not only by individuals but also by entrepreneurs, financial analysts and professional forecasters. They are one of the inputs to monetary policy decisions.

See also: inflation expectations of individuals, May 2012

NBP interest rates

Reference rate 1.50
Lombard rate 2.50
Deposit rate 0.50
Rediscount rate 1.75

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