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Household Inflation Expectations Down Again

Date: 30-11-2012

NBP data: November was the third consecutive month of falling inflation expectations of private individuals. Inflation is expected to average 3.6% over the next 12 months.

The monthly release on household inflation expectations published by the NBP on 30 November points to their continued downward revision . The average inflation index expected by consumers over the next 12 months declined to 3.6%. In October, it stood at 3.8%; in September at 4.1% and in August at 4.4%.

At the time of the survey, the October CPI index of 3.8% - unchanged on the previous month’s figure - was already known to the public.

The structure of expectations improved. The percentage of the public believing prices to rise faster in the next 12 months than recently rose from 23.3% in October to 20.3% in November. There was a slight increase (from 49.9% to 50.7%) in the share of respondents expecting prices in the next 12 months to rise at the same pace as in the past few months. The most pronounced increase - from 16.6% to 20.4% - was observed in the number of optimists who anticipated inflation to decelerate. Thus, the number of optimists exceeded, if only marginally, the number of pessimists, a development not seen in a year.

The National Bank of Poland examines, on a regular basis, inflation expectations of individuals - as well as entrepreneurs, financial analysts and professional forecasters. These constitute one of the inputs to the monetary policy decision-making process.

See also: ► Inflation expectations of individuals, November 2012

NBP interest rates

Reference rate 1.50
Lombard rate 2.50
Deposit rate 0.50
Rediscount rate 1.75

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