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Inflation Expectations of Private Individuals in September

Date: 28-09-2012

NBP data: Sample households surveyed in September expect that the average inflation rate in the coming 12 months will amount to 4.1%. In August the same indicator stood at 4.4%.

The monthly release on inflation expectations posted by the National Bank of Poland on 28 September 2012 indicates that in comparison with August, the September index of inflation expected by consumers slightly decreased (from 4.4% to 4.1%), but stood at a higher level than in June (3.7%) and July (3.5%).

At the moment of the survey, the July CPI was publicly known (4.0%) and was 0.3% down on the June CPI.

As regards the structure of expectations, the percentage of persons expecting prices to rise in the coming 12 months faster than recently increased from 22.4% in August to 25.0% in September. The share of individuals believing prices will continue to grow at the same pace decreased – from 55.1% to 51.4%. However, the share of optimists anticipating inflation to decelerate increased (from 13.6% to 15.9%).

The National Bank of Poland examines, on a regular basis, inflation expectations of individuals as well as entrepreneurs, financial analysts and professional forecasters. These constitute one of the inputs to the monetary policy decision-making process.

See also: ► Inflation expectations of individuals, September 2012

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