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Core inflation in February 2014

Date: 17-03-2014

NBP data: In February, inflation net of food and energy prices amounted to 0.9% y/y and was by 0.5 pp higher than in January. The CPI index as at the end of February went up by 0.7%.

On 17 March Narodowy Bank Polski released information on core inflation measures in February 2014. In year-on-year terms inflation:

  • excluding administered (state-controlled) prices reached 0.4%, as against 0.1% a month before;
  • excluding the most volatile prices amounted to 0.5%, the same level as in January;
  • net of food and energy prices increased to 0.9% from 0.4% at the end of January;
  • the so-called trimmed mean (excluding the impact of 15% of the price basket characterised by the lowest and highest growth rates) was running at 0.4% for the second consecutive month.

The CPI (consumer inflation) index, announced by GUS on 14 March, amounted to 0.7% (y/y) in February as against 0.5% in January.

Narodowy Bank Polski computes the four core inflation indices on a monthly basis in order to highlight the nature of inflation developments in Poland. The CPI shows average price movement across the whole broad basket of consumer goods. By calculating core inflation indices we can address price changes in various segments of the basket. Thus, sources of inflation can be identified more precisely, and future trends forecast more accurately. Furthermore, it can be determined to what degree the observed inflation trend is a lasting phenomenon, and to what extent it is driven by e.g. short-lived price hikes triggered by incidental factors.

The core inflation measure most frequently used by analysts is inflation net of food and energy prices. It captures movements in prices which are fairly responsive to the central bank’s monetary policy. On the other hand, energy prices (including fuel prices) are not set domestically, but determined in the global markets, sometimes as a result of speculation. Also food prices are largely dependent on, among other things, the weather and conditions prevailing in the domestic and worldwide agricultural market.

See also: The NBP announcement on February 2014 core inflation »

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