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Core inflation in March 2014

Date: 16-04-2014

NBP data: In March, inflation net of food and energy prices amounted to 1.1% y/y and was 0.2 pp higher than in February. The CPI index stood at 0.7% at the end of March

On 16 April, Narodowy Bank Polski published data on March core inflation indices. In year-on year terms, inflation:

  • excluding administered (state-controlled) prices reached 0.3%; the previous month the index had posted 0.4%;
  • excluding the most volatile prices amounted to 0.5%, i. e. the level observed both in February and January;
  • net of food and energy prices rose to 1.1%. from 0.9% observed at the end of February;
  • the so-called trimmed mean (excluding the impact of 15% of the price basket characterised by the highest and lowest growth rates) was running at 0.4% for the third consecutive month.

The CPI index, announced by GUS on 15 April, stood at 0.7% y/y, i.e. the same level as in February.

Narodowy Bank Polski computes the four core inflation indices on a monthly basis in order to highlight the nature of inflation developments in Poland. The CPI only shows average price movement across the whole broad basket of consumer goods. By calculating core inflation indices we can address price changes in various segments of the basket. Thus, sources of inflation can be identified more precisely, and future trends forecast more accurately. Furthermore, it can be determined to what degree the observed inflation trend is a lasting phenomenon, and to what extent it is driven by e.g. short-lived price hikes triggered by incidental factors.

The core inflation measure most frequently used by analysts is inflation excluding food and energy prices. It captures movements in prices which are fairly responsive to the central bank's monetary policy. On the other hand, energy prices (including fuel prices) are not set domestically, but determined in the global markets, sometimes as a result of speculation. Also food prices are largely dependent on, among other things, the weather and conditions prevailing in the domestic and worldwide agricultural market.

See also: The NBP announcement on March 2014 core inflation »

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