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Core inflation in October 2014

Date: 14-11-2014

NBP data: In October inflation net of food and energy prices amounted to 0.2% (y/y), representing a 0.5pp decrease on the September figure. The October CPI index decreased as well and stood at -0.6% (y/y).

On 14 November, Narodowy Bank Polski posted data on October core inflation indices. In year-on-year terms, inflation:

  • excluding administered (state-controlled) prices amounted -0.8% against -0.5% in September;
  • excluding the most volatile prices decreased to -0.1% from 0.0% observed in September;
  • net of food and energy prices, amounted to 0.2%, i.e. 0.5pp less than in September;
  • the so-called 15% trimmed mean (excluding the impact of 15% of the price basket characterised by the highest and the lowest growth rates) stood at 0.0%, unchanged from the month before.

The October CPI index, announced by GUS on 13 November, amounted to -0.6% (y/y), i.e. decreased by 0.3pp as compared to September.

Narodowy Bank Polski computes the four core inflation indices on a monthly basis in order to highlight the nature of inflation developments in Poland. The CPI only shows average price movement across the whole broad basket of consumer goods. By calculating core inflation indices we can address price changes in various segments of the basket. Thus, sources of inflation can be identified more precisely, and future trends forecast more accurately. Furthermore, it can be determined to what degree the observed inflation trend is a lasting phenomenon, and to what extent it is driven by e.g. short-lived price hikes triggered by incidental factors.

The core inflation measure most frequently used by analysts is inflation net of food and energy prices. It captures movements in prices which are fairly responsive to the central bank's monetary policy. On the other hand energy prices (including fuel prices) are not set domestically, but determined in the global markets, sometimes as a result of speculation. Also food prices are largely dependent on, among other things, the weather and conditions prevailing in the domestic and worldwide agricultural market.

See also: The NBP announcement on October 2014 core inflation »

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