Conference following the November meeting of the Monetary Policy Council
At its November meeting, the Monetary Policy Council decided to leave the NBP interest rates unchanged.
The Monetary Policy Council, which held its meeting on 4 and 5 November, decided to keep the NBP interest rates at the present level. Thus, the reference rate remains at 2.00%, the lombard rate at 3.00%, the rediscount rate at 2.25% and the deposit rate at 1.00%. In the opinion of the Council, the October adjustment of monetary policy and the persisting stable economic growth, despite some slowdown, limit the risk of inflation remaining below the target in the medium term.
The President of NBP replied to the question as to why the Council decided to keep interest rates unchanged, although inflation will persist below the target in accordance with the November forecast: “The key issue for the majority of the Council was that the slowdown in economic growth could be temporary and in relation to this, while nobody is arguing about the inevitability of slow price growth over the projection horizon, the question of GDP growth raised some controversy and differences of opinion”, said Professor Marek Belka during the press conference following the meeting of the Monetary Policy Council.
However, in the press release issued by the Council following the meeting, it was stressed that in Poland’s environment, uncertainty remains regarding the future economic climate. “Therefore, the Council does not rule out further adjustment of monetary policy, should the incoming data confirm a deterioration of economic growth prospects.”
The Council adopted the Inflation report – November 2014, drawn up by the Economic Institute. In accordance with the November projection based on the NECMOD model – prepared under the assumption of unchanged NBP interest rates and based on data available until 20 October 2014 – there is a 50-percent probability of inflation running in the range of 0.0-0.2% in 2014 (compared to -0.1-0.4% in the July 2014 projection), 0.4-1.7% in 2015 (as against 0.5-2.1%), and 0.6-2.3% in 2016 (as against 1.3-3.1%). In turn, according to this projection there is a 50-percent probability that the annual GDP growth will be in the range of 2.9-3.5% in 2014 (compared to 3.2-4.1% in the July 2014 projection), 2.0-3.7% in 2015 (as against 2.6-4.5%), and 1.9-4.2% in 2016 (as against 2.3-4.5%).
The conference was attended, apart from the Chairman of the Council, by Professor Elżbieta Chojna-Duch and Professor Jerzy Osiatyński. The next meeting MPC meeting is scheduled to be held on 2-3 December 2014.