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Consumer inflation expectations

Date: 30-04-2014

NBP data: Consumers surveyed in the first half of April expect prices to rise in the next 12 months at a slower pace than so far.

The NBP release on inflation expectations of consumers, published on 30 April 2014, shows that since April 2013, these expectations have remained low, i.e. below the lower tolerance band for deviations from the NBP inflation target.

Quantification of the data obtained in a survey conducted by GUS (the Central Statistical Office) in the first half of April puts the average inflation index as expected by consumers over the next 12 months at the previous month’s level of 0.5%. The quantification procedure, which translates the respondents’ subjective perception into the language of official inflation statistics, assumes that at the time of the latest survey, respondents’ perception of price changes in the preceding 12 months equalled the CPI index, which was available at the time of the survey (0.7%).

As from January 2014, the measure of consumer inflation expectations has been based on a relevant GUS survey. Until the end of 2013, NBP analysts used corresponding survey data provided by the company Ipsos, which had at its disposal the longest time series of survey data on Polish consumers' expectations. At the beginning of 2014, Ipsos discontinued the consumer surveys from which the data were sourced. The change of the source of survey data on the anticipated price movements has no material impact on the assessment of consumer inflation expectations, as the expected inflation measures quantified with both Ipsos and GUS data have been very similar so far.

Narodowy Bank Polski examines, on a regular basis, inflation expectations of not only consumers, but also the business community, financial analysts and professional forecasters. These provide one of the inputs to the monetary policy decision-making process.

See also: ► Consumer inflation expectations, April 2014

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