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Consumer inflation expectations

Date: 31-01-2014

NBP data: The consumers surveyed in the first half of January expect prices to rise somewhat more slowly in the next 12 months.

The NBP release on consumer inflation expectations published on 31 January shows that these expectations have remained low, i.e. below the tolerance band for deviations from the NBP inflation target, thus continuing the trend observed since April 2013.

Quantification of the data obtained in a survey conducted by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) in the first half of 2013 put the average inflation index as expected by consumers over the next 12 months at 0.5%. A month before, the index stood at 0.6%. The quantification procedure, which translates respondents’ subjective perceptions into the language of official inflation statistics, assumes that at the point of the survey, respondents’ perceptions of the change in prices in the preceding 12 months equalled the CPI index, which was available at the time of the survey (0.6%).

As of 2014, the measure of consumers' inflation expectations will be based on a relevant GUS survey. Until the end of 2013, NBP analysts used corresponding survey data provided by the company Ipsos (formerly: Ipsos-Demoskop), which had at its disposal the longest time series of survey data on Polish consumer expectations. At the beginning of 2014, Ipsos discontinued the consumer surveys from which the data were sourced. The change of the source of survey data on the anticipated price movements has no material impact on the assessment of consumer inflation expectations, as the expected inflation measures quantified with both Ipsos and GUS data have been very similar so far.

Narodowy Bank Polski examines, on a regular basis, inflation expectations of not only consumers, but also the business community, financial analysts and professional forecasters. These provide one of the inputs to the monetary policy decision-making process.

See also: ► Consumer inflation expectations, January 2014

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