Forecasting model of NBP
NECMOD is the NBP’s main forecasting model. It is a structural macroeconometric model designed to describe the Polish economy, on which the inflation and GDP projection published in the fourth chapter of Inflation Report is based. The NECMOD model was developed in 2008 as a result of many far-going refinements introduced to the ECMOD model (see a table below). The current structure of the model is presented in the following scheme.
The reestimation of the NECMOD model is carried out once a year, before the July projection round – the last one took place in May 2014. However, the structure of the model, its parameters, as well as its impulse response functions do not differ much from the version of 2012.
The following table contains files with documentation of subsequent forecasting models of NBP, together with their updates: NECMOD (from 2008), ECMOD (years 2005-2008), MSMI (jointly with NSA – years 2003-2005) and NSA (years 2000-2003).