Narodowy Bank Polski

Monetary Policy

Forecasting model of NBP

NECMOD is the NBP’s main forecasting model. It is a structural macroeconometric model designed to describe the Polish economy, on which the inflation and GDP projection published in the fourth chapter of Inflation Report is based. The NECMOD model was developed in 2008 as a result of many far-going refinements introduced to the ECMOD model (see a table below). The current structure of the model is presented in the following scheme.

schemat

The reestimation of the NECMOD model is carried out once a year, before the July projection round – the last one took place in May 2014. However, the structure of the model, its parameters, as well as its impulse response functions do not differ much from the version of 2012.

The following table contains files with documentation of subsequent forecasting models of NBP, together with their updates: NECMOD (from 2008), ECMOD (years 2005-2008), MSMI (jointly with NSA – years 2003-2005) and NSA (years 2000-2003).

Year Link Comments
NECMOD model
2012 Re-estimation of NECMOD model Respecification of labour participation block.
2011 Re-estimation of NECMOD model Changes to prices block. Including the hysteresis.
2010 Re-estimation of NECMOD model Changes to prices block. New corporate investment equation.
2009 Re-estimation of NECMOD model
Re-estimation of NECMOD model - presentation
Changes to the foreign trade block.
2008 A description of NECMOD model
NECMOD model - presentation
The first version of the NECMOD model. Changes to the ECMOD model include: more complex labour market structure, incorporation of inflation expectations, breakdown of gross fixed capital formation (into private, public and residential), implementation of the housing block modelled both from demand and supply side, changes to prices block (including a new core inflation definition), the impact of global commodity prices on the domestic prices included.
ECMOD model
2007 A description of ECMOD model Endogenously determined non-accelerating wage rate of unemployment (NAWRU), changes applied to wage equation, foreign trade block and the external environment definition.
2005 A description of ECMOD model The first version of the ECMOD model.
MSMI and NSA models
2004 A description of MSMI and NSA models Models documentation from February 2004.

NBP interest rates

Reference rate 1.50
Lombard rate 2.50
Deposit rate 0.50
Rediscount rate 1.75

Exchange rates

Table of 2017-11-24
1 EUR4.2116
1 USD3.5486
1 CHF3.6160
1 GBP4.7295
100 JPY3.1845

Economic outlook

Monthly data

Quarterly data

Financial markets

Numismatics

Contact

Narodowy Bank Polski
Świętokrzyska 11/21
00-919 Warszawa
Poland

tel.:
+48 22 185 10 00
e-mail: listy@nbp.pl
NIP: 525-000-81-98
REGON: 000002223
SWIFT: NBPL PLPW
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