Consumer inflation expectations

Under the direct inflation targeting strategy, inflation expectations of economic agents are closely monitored by the monetary authorities. Narodowy Bank Polski examines the expectations of various groups of agents: corporates, consumers, financial sector analysts and other professional forecasters. In this section of our information service, we present data on consumer inflation expec-tations, together with explanations of the measurement methodology involved.

As of 2014, the measure of consumers' 12-month inflation expectations will be based on a relevant Central Statistical Office (GUS) survey. Until 2013, we used corresponding survey data provided by the company Ipsos (formerly: Ipsos-Demoskop), which had at its disposal the longest time series of survey data on Polish consumer expectations. At the beginning of 2014, Ipsos discontinued the consumer surveys from which the data were sourced. The change of the source of survey data on the anticipated price movements has no material impact on the assessment of consumer inflation expectations, as the expected inflation measures quantified with both Ipsos and GUS data have been very similar so far.

The data on the formation of private individuals' expectations are published regularly by the Monetary Policy Council in the INFLATION REPORTS.

Selected literature in English concerning the measurement system and the character of expectations of private individuals.

NBP interest rates

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Table of 2016-07-22
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