9th NBP Annual Flagship Conference on the Future of the European Economy (CoFEE)
Monetary Policies in the New European Setting
Warsaw, 25 October 2019
The 9th edition of the NBP Annual Flagship Conference on the Future of the European Economy (CoFEE) was held on 25 October 2019 at the Sheraton Hotel in Warsaw under the title
Monetary Policies in the New European Setting.
Narodowy Bank Polski once again hosted economists from almost all over the world – high-ranking central bankers, representatives of global financial institutions and academics. This year’s meeting under the title
Monetary Policies in the New European Setting was devoted to the present-day challenges faced by the institutions responsible for monetary policies in Central Europe and beyond the region, including the assessment of the impact of such factors as the diverging monetary policies of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) as well as weakening global growth, especially in Western Europe. The discussion was also aimed at verifying what kind of monetary policy would be most suitable for our region (i.e. for EU countries retaining their national currencies such as Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary) given each country’s distinctive local features and economic results.
The conference consisted of four discussion panels. The first two panels were devoted to the impact on our region’s monetary policies from, respectively, the policies of the Fed and the ECB. In the third panel, the debaters focused on an exchange of experience in monetary policy-making in the non-euro EU countries. Finally, the last panel, called the “Crystal Ball”, traditionally devoted to a look into the future, was an attempt to anticipate what impact the New European Setting (post-election fragmentation in the EP, new composition of the EC and appointment of new heads of the ECB and EP in 2019, along with Brexit) will have on monetary policies and what outlook there is for convergence between our region and Western European countries.
This year the invitation to attend the conference as moderators of particular sessions was accepted by: Mark Sobel – US Chairman of OMFIF, and three high-ranking representatives of central banks – Madis Müller – Governor of Eesti Pank, Martin Flodén – Deputy Governor of Sveriges Riksbank, and Barnabás Virág – Director for Monetary Policy at Magyar Nemzeti Bank.
The conference was opened by Adam Glapiński, President of NBP, who referring to its title and agenda, emphasized, among other things, that the countries retaining their national currencies that implement monetary policies tailored to their own distinctive local features achieve very good economic results.
The President of Poland, Andrzej Duda, welcomed the conference participants in a special letter, pointing out the importance of central banks in eliminating uncertainty in monetary policy in Europe and the world. The Polish Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, also addressed a letter to the conference participants, emphasizing, among other things, the necessity to maintain a delicate balance between monetary and fiscal policies.
A special opening address was given by Marcel Fratzscher – a Humboldt University professor and president of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW-Berlin). In his speech he attempted to define the three challenges faced by the eurozone, calling them three “Ps” – populism, protectionism and paralysis (i.e. stale bureaucracy). According to professor Fratzscher, the remedies to these problems are fiscal impulses and structural reforms, completion of EMU architecture, and fostering of the international role of the euro by supporting integration and strengthening Europe’s geopolitical influence against the G2 (USA and China).
Countries with their own national currencies can more easily adjust their monetary policies in the context of the New European Setting. Because these challenges concern the EU as a whole, the economic future of all EU countries depends on how we cope with them. This year’s CoFEE certainly brought the participants closer to a better understanding of these issues.
Session I : Global dimension: Effects of the changing US monetary policy on the emerging market economies, especially in Central Europe
Session II: European dimension: The implications of stop-and-go in the ECB’s quantitative easing for the eurozone and Central Europe
Session III: Regional dimension: There is life beyond eurozone, isn’t there?
“Crystal Ball” Panel : What does the new European political setting mean for the Central European economies? Video report from the conference:
VIDEO Video recording of the conference: