NBP Workshop 2006

THE ROLE OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN MODELLING AND MONETARY POLICY MAKING

Program of the Conference



Thursday, February 9th, 2006


08:30 - 08:45 Opening address
Jerzy Pruski - First Deputy President of the National Bank of Poland
08:45 - 09:45 Opening lecture: The role of expectations in macroeconomics
- Peter Sinclair, University of Birmingham and the Bank of England
09:45 - 10:15

Coffee break

10.15-11.00 Should private expectations concern central bankers?
  Martin Fukač, Czech National Bank
  Discussant: Zoltan Jakab, National Bank of Hungary

11:00 - 11:45 How robust are quantified survey data? Evidence from the United States
  Roy Batchelor, Cass Business School, London
  Discussant: Richard Curtin, University of Michigan

11:45 - 12:30

Inflation expectations: theoretical models and empirical tests
  Richard Curtin, University of Michigan
  Discussant: Michael F. Bryan, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

12:30 - 14:00

Lunch break

14:00 - 14:45

Survey expectations, rationality and the dynamics of euro area inflation
  Magnus Forsells and Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
  Discussant: Fabien Curto Millet, Balliol College, Oxford

14:45 - 15:30

Household versus expert forecasts of inflation: New evidence from European survey data
  Christina Gerberding, Deutsche Bundesbank
  Discussant: Emilia Tomczyk, Warsaw School of Economics

15:30 - 16:15

The role of expectations in the inflation process in the euro area
  Maritta Paloviita and Matti Viren, Bank of Finland
  Discussant: Roy Batchelor, Cass Business School, London

16:15 - 16:45

Coffee break

16:45 - 17:30

Testing near-rationality using detailed survey data
  Michael F. Bryan, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Stefan Palmqvist, Sveriges Riksbank
  Discussant: Maciej K. Dudek, National Bank of Poland

17:30 - 18:15

400 000 observations on inflation perceptions and expectations in the EU. What will they tell us?
  Staffan Lindén, European Commission
  Discussant: Stefan Palmqvist, Sveriges Riksbank

20:00

Reception
Remarks by Leszek Balcerowicz - President of the National Bank of Poland


Friday, February 10th, 2006


08:30 - 09:15 Consumers' inflation expectations and monetary policy in Europe
  Jan Marc Berk, De Nederlandsche Bank
  Discussant: Tomasz Łyziak, National Bank of Poland

09:15 - 10:00 Finding the optimal method of quantifying inflation expectations on the basis of qualitative survey data
  Fabien Curto Millet, Balliol College, Oxford
  Discussant: Jerzy Mycielski, University of Warsaw

10:00 - 10:45 Consumer inflation expectations. Usefulness of survey-based measures - a cross-country study
  Ryszard Kokoszczyński, Tomasz Łyziak, Ewa Stanisławska, National Bank of Poland
  Discussant: Martin Fukač, Czech National Bank

10:45 - 11:15

Coffee break

11:15 - 12:30 Panel discussion on the use of different measures of inflation expectations in monetary policy making
  Chair: Lars Jonung, European Commission
  Panelists:
  • Tibor Hledik, Czech National Bank
  • Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
  • Ryszard Kokoszczyński, National Bank of Poland
12:30 - 13:00

Closing remarks: Andrzej Wojtyna, Monetary Policy Council, National Bank of Poland

13:00 - 14:30

Lunch




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