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Research & Conferences

2012 CENTRAL BANK
MACROECONOMIC MODELING WORKSHOP:
MODELING IMBALANCES

National Bank of Poland
September 13-14, 2012

Programme

Thursday, 13 September 2012,
  8:15 –   8:45 Registration and welcome coffee
  8:45 –   9:00 Welcome address by Andrzej Raczko, Member of the Management Board, National Bank of Poland
  9:00 – 10:00 The Financial Cycle and Macroeconomics: What Have We Learnt?
Keynote speech by Claudio Borio, Bank for International Settlements
10:00 – 10:30 Coffee break
10:30 – 12:15
Session I
Financial Imbalances
Chairman: Ryszard Kokoszczyński, National Bank of Poland, University of Warsaw

Monetary and Macroprudential Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area
Presented by Dominic Quint, Free University Berlin
Co-author: Pau Rabanal, International Monetary Fund
Discussant: Olivier Loisel, Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique

Macroprudential Policy and Imbalances in the Euro Area
Presented by Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, National Bank of Poland, Warsaw School of Economics
Co-authors: Marcin Kolasa, Krzysztof Makarski, National Bank of Poland, Warsaw School of Economics
Discussant: Yusuf Soner Başkaya, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
12:15 – 13:15 Lunch break
13:15 – 15:00
Session II
Housing Imbalances
Chairman: Claudio Borio, Bank for International Settlements

Econometric Regime Shifts and the US Subprime Bubble
Presented by André K. Anundsen, University of Oslo
Discussant: Christian Heebøll-Christensen, University of Copenhagen

House Prices, Credit Growth, and Excess Volatility:
Implications for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy

Presented by Kevin J. Lansing, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Norges Bank
Co-authors: Paolo Gelain, Norges Bank and Caterina Mendicino, Bank of Portugal
Discussant: Alessandro Notarpietro, Banca d’Italia
15:00 – 15:30 Coffee break
15:30 – 17:15
Session III
Imbalances in the Corporate Sector
Chairman: Douglas Laxton, International Monetary Fund

Corporate Debt Structure and the Financial Crisis
Presented by Fiorella De Fiore, European Central Bank
Co-author: Harald Uhlig, University of Chicago
Discussant: Paolo Gelain, Norges Bank

Debt Overhang in a Business Cycle Model
Presented by Filippo Occhino, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Co-author: Andrea Pescatori, International Monetary Fund
Discussant: Jacek Suda, Banque de France
19:00 Dinner (by invitation)

Friday, 14 September 2012
  9:00 – 10:00 Issues in Extending Inflation-Forecast-Targeting Regimes
to Include Countercyclical Macro-Prudential Policies

Keynote speech by Douglas Laxton, International Monetary Fund
10:00 – 10:30 Coffee break
10:30 – 12:15
Session IV
Fiscal Imbalances
Chairman: Fiorella de Fiore, European Central Bank

Aging, Labour Market Dynamics and Fiscal Imbalances
Presented by Olivier Pierrard, Banque Centrale du Luxembourg
Co-authors: Luca Marchiori, Banque Centrale du Luxembourg
  and Henri S. Sneessens, Université du Luxembourg, IZA
Discussant: Krzysztof Makarski, National Bank of Poland, Warsaw School of Economics

Macroeconomic Effects of Sovereign Restructuring in a Monetary Union:
A Model-Based Approach

Presented by Massimiliano Pisani, Banca d’Italia
Co-author: Lorenzo Forni, International Monetary Fund
Discussant: Dirk Muir, International Monetary Fund
12:15 – 13:15 Lunch break
13:15 – 15:00
Session V
Imbalances in the Euro Area
Chairman: Andrzej Sławiński, National Bank of Poland, Warsaw School of Economics

The European Monetary Union and Imbalances: Is It an Anticipation Story?
Presented by Daniele Siena, Università Bocconi

Fiscal Risk in a Monetary Union
Presented by Betty C. Daniel, University at Albany
Co-author: Christos Shiamptanis, Ryerson University
Discussant: István Kónya, Magyar Nemzeti Bank
15:00 – 15:10 Briefing on the Central Bank Macroeconomic Modeling Workshop in 2013
Yusuf Soner Başkaya, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
15:10 – 15:25 Closing remarks: Andrzej Sławiński, National Bank of Poland, Warsaw School of Economics

NBP interest rates

Reference rate 0.10
Lombard rate 0.50
Deposit rate 0.00
Rediscount rate 0.11
Discount rate 0.12

Exchange rates

Table of 2020-10-19
1 EUR4.5498
1 USD3.8761
1 CHF4.2448
1 GBP5.0374
100 JPY3.6796

Economic outlook

Monthly data

Quarterly data

Financial markets

Numismatics

Contact

Narodowy Bank Polski
Świętokrzyska 11/21
00-919 Warszawa
Poland

tel.:
+48 22 185 10 00
e-mail: listy@nbp.pl
NIP: 525-000-81-98
REGON: 000002223
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