Thursday, 13 November 2014 |
8:30 – 9:00 | Registration, welcome coffee
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9:00 – 9:30 | Opening remarks
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9.30 – 11.00 | Invited Session 1, Chair: Jacek Kotłowski Generalised density forecast combinations [Slides] Invited speaker: Simon Price, Bank of England, City University London Co-authors: Nicholas Fawcett, Bank of England George Kapetanios, Queen Mary, University of London James Mitchell, Warwick Business School Optimal portfolio choice under decision-based model combinations [Slides] Invited speaker: Francesco Ravazzolo, Norges Bank, BI Norwegian Business School Co-author: Davide Pettenuzzo, Brandeis University
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11.00 – 11.30 | Coffee break
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11.30 – 12.40 | Keynote Lecture 1, Chair: Simon Price Combined density nowcasting in an uncertain economic environment Keynote speaker: Herman K. van Dijk, Erasmus University Rotterdam and VU University Amsterdam Co-authors: Knut Are Aastveit, Norges Bank Francesco Ravazzolo, Norges Bank, BI Norwegian Business School
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12.40 – 13.30 | Lunch
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13.30 – 14.15 | Poster Session
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14.15 – 15.45 | Contributed Session 1, Chair: Herman K. van Dijk Density forecasts with MIDAS models Knut Are Aastveit, Norges Bank Co-authors: Claudia Foroni, Norges Bank Francesco Ravazzolo, Norges Bank, BI Norwegian Business School Combining distributions of real-time forecasts: an application to U.S. growth Thomas B. Gotz, Deutsche Bundesbank Co-authors: Alain Hecq, Maastricht University Jean-Pierre Urbain, Maastricht University EuroMInd-D: a density estimate of monthly gross domestic product for the euro area [Slides] Tommaso Proietti, Universitá di Roma “Tor Vergata”, CREATES Co-authors: Martyna Marczak, University of Hohenheim Gianluigi Mazzi, Eurostat |
15.45 – 16.15 | Coffee break
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16.15 – 17.15 | Contributed Session 2, Chair: Shaun Vahey Ex-post inflation forecast uncertainty and skew normal distribution: ‘Back from the future’ approach [Slides] Svetlana Makarova, University College London Co-authors: Wojciech Charemza, University of Leicester Carlos Díaz, University of Leicester
Outperforming IMF forecasts by the use of Leading Indicators Katja Drechsel, Halle Institute for Economic Research Co-authors: Sebastian Gieseny, Deutsche Bundesbank Axel Lindnerz, Halle Institute for Economic Research |
Friday, 14 November 2014 |
8:30 – 9:00 | Welcome coffee
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9:00 – 10:50
| Invited Session 2, Chair: Francesco Ravazzolo Granger-causal-priority and choice of variables in Vector Autoregressions Invited speaker: Marek Jarociński, European Central Bank Co-author: Bartosz Maćkowiak, European Central Bank, Centre for Economic Policy Research Informative regime switching: Estimation and forecasting Invited speaker: Sylvia Kaufmann, Study Center Gerzensee
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10:50 – 11:10 | Coffee Break
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11:10 – 12:10 | Contributed Session 3, Chair: Marek Jarocinski Modelling infl ation volatility Eric Eisenstat, University of Bucharest, RIMIR Co-author: Rodney W. Strachan, University of Queensland
Synchronization of cycles in a data-rich environment Cem Çakmaklı, University of Amsterdam, Koç University Co-author: Richard Paap, Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam
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12:10 – 13:10 | Lunch
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13:10 – 14:40 | Contributed Session 4, Chair: Sylvia Kaufmann Bayesian forecasting using reduced rank VARs Sune Karlsson, Örebro University Co-author: Shutong Ding, Örebro University
Density forecasting using Bayesian Global Vector Autoregressions with common stochastic volatility Florian Huber, Österreichische Nationalbank, Vienna University of Economics and Business
Analysing and forecasting price dynamics across euro area countries and sectors: A panel VAR approach Jochen Guntner, Johannes Kepler University Linz Co-author: Stéphane Dées, European Central Bank |
14:40 – 15:00 | Coffee Break
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15:00 – 16:00 | Contributed Session 5, Chair: Sune Karlsson Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions estimated using Professional Forecasts Christoph Frey, University of Konstanz Co-author: Frieder Mokinski, ZEW
Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations Daniel Kaufmann, ETH Zürich Co-author: Rolf Scheufele, Swiss National Bank
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16:00 – 17:00 | Invited Session 3, Chair: Błazej Mazur An Introduction to the PRObability FORcasting (PROFOR) Toolbox for MATLAB [Slides] Invited speaker: Shaun Vahey, Warwick University Co-authors: Craig Thamotheram, Warwick University Leif Anders Thorsrud, BI Norwegian Business School |
17:00 | Closing remarks
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