Narodowy Bank Polski

Conferences

Presentation of the World Bank report January 2020 Global Economic Prospects


On January 13, 2020, the next edition of the World Bank (WB) Global Economic Prospects report was presented at the headquarters of the Narodowy Bank of Poland (NBP) in Warsaw. The presentation was made by the main author of the report, Franziska Ohnsorge - Development Economics Prospects Group Manager at the WB.

Over 90 people attended the presentation, including representatives of the World Bank, public administration, commercial banks and universities, both domestic and international

The WB's flagship report is devoted to analysing the condition of the global economy and forecasting growth for the coming years. The Bank's analysts predict that in 2020 global GDP will increase by 2.5%, in 2021 by 2.6%, and in 2022 by 2.7%. What is worrying is the rapid rise in indebtedness of emerging economies and developing countries, which increases their vulnerability to the negative effects of potential financial crises. Slowing productivity growth is also a problem for these countries.

The presentation was followed by a discussion panel moderated by Filip Kochan – acting WB Regional Director for Poland and the Baltic States, with participation of Franziska Ohnsorge, Kevin Daly – Co-head of CEEMEA Economics from Goldman Sachs, and Anna Kosior – Head of Division from the Economic Analysis Department of NBP. The debate focused on issues that are part of the World Bank report, including growing indebtedness, unsatisfactory investment and productivity levels, and international trade tensions. It was pointed out that the problem for economic operators is not the level of tariffs themselves, but the uncertainty about their level in the future. It is also worrying that debt is increasing while productivity is falling, but this is unlikely to lead to another economic crisis. Much attention was paid to the Polish economy, which, according to the World Bank's analysis, is expected to grow at a rate of 3.6% in 2020, 3.3% in 2021, and 3.1% in 2022. Loosening of the fiscal policy and transfers of the EU funds were pointed out as the reasons for Poland's favourable economic situation.

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