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Latest Inflation and GDP Projection Released

Date: 12-03-2012

Report: According to the March projection drawn up by the NBP Economic Institute, there is a high likelihood of Poland’s GDP rising by 3.0% in 2012 and by 2.3% in the following year.

On 12 March, the NBP Economic Institute researchers presented their latest GDP and inflation projection to market analysts and journalists. The projection always comes as part of the “Inflation Report”, published by the National Bank of Poland three times a year. These reports provide an in-depth analysis of changes having affected the global and the Polish economy as well as inflation developments in the past few months. However, while inflation reports focus on past developments, the projection of GDP and inflation looks ahead over the 3-year horizon. Although the document is not strictly a forecast, relying on the assumption of constant policy interest rates, it is nevertheless taken to be an important indicator as to future levels of key economic parameters.

The central projection path presents the most likely scenario. In line with the central path presented in the latest projection, Poland’s GDP is anticipated to rise by 3.0% in 2012, by 2.3% in 2013 and by 3.2% in 2014. Wages will continue to grow at the fairly stable current level; likewise, unemployment, in the next two years, will continue at a level close to that observed today.

Moreover, the projection assumes the inflation index to fall. The initial version of the projection, largely relying on the data released until 24 January 2011, expected inflation to reach 4.1% in 2012, 2.9% in 2013 and 2.0% in 2014.

“However, it turned out later that 24 January represented a peak inflow of downbeat data. After that day, news became more optimistic. When accounting for this data, this year’s inflation should stand at 0.3-0.4 percentage points lower than previously, and the 2013 inflation – at 0.2-0.3 percentage points below the previous estimate” – says Jacek Kotłowski, Deputy General Director of the Economic Institute.

The projection includes an extensive chapter looking into risks causing reality to diverge from what is envisaged in the projection. As was the case with the previous projections, a vast majority of those risks relate to the uncertainty about the developments in Poland’s external environment.

See: Inflation report, March 2012

NBP interest rates

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