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December Net Inflation at 3.1%

Date: 20-01-2012

NBP data: Three of four core inflation indices rose in December 2011. Inflation excluding administered prices declined.

On 20 January, the National Bank of Poland released data on core inflation in December 2011. The figures show three of the indices to be up on their November levels - each by 0.1 percentage point. In contrast, the fourth of them had decreased, also by 0.1 percentage point.

Thus, inflation:

  • excluding administered (state-controlled) prices reached 4.3%, as against 4.4% in November and 3.9% in October;
  • excluding the most volatile prices amounted to 4.1%, as against 4.0% in November and 3.7% in October;
  • net of food and energy prices amounted to 3.1%, as against 3.0% in November and 2.8 % in October;
  • the so-called trimmed mean (excluding the impact of 15% of the price basket characterised by the highest and lowest growth rates) was running at 4.7%, as against 4.6% in November and 4.3% in October.

For reference, the CPI (consumer inflation) index stood at 4.6%, down on its November figure of 4.8%. The National Bank of Poland computes four core inflation indices on a monthly basis, which helps understand the structure of inflation developments in Poland. While the CPI shows the average movement in the price of a whole basket of consumer goods, calculating core inflation indices addresses price changes in various segments of the basket. In this way, sources of inflation can be better identified, and its trends forecast more accurately. It also enables us to determine how lasting an observed inflation trend is, and whether and to what extent it is driven by e.g. short-lived price hikes triggered by unpredictable factors. The core inflation measure most frequently used by analysts is inflation net of food and energy prices, otherwise termed net inflation. It captures movements in prices relatively responsive to the central bank's monetary policy. On the other hand, energy prices (including those of fuels) are not set domestically, but determined in the global markets, sometimes as a result of speculation; while food prices depend, among other things, on the weather and conditions prevailing in the home and global agricultural market.

See: the NBP announcement on December 2011 core inflation

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