Presentation of the March projection of inflation and GDP
Presentation: The recent projection prepared by the Economic Institute of the NBP shows that until the end of 2015, inflation will continue at a very low level with accelerating GDP growth.
On 11 March 2013, the representatives of the Economic Institute of the NBP presented to market analysts and journalists the recent projection of inflation and GDP. The projection forms part of the “Inflation Report” published by the NBP three times a year – in March, July and November. These reports provide a detailed description of developments in the global and domestic economy in the preceding months, whereas the projection of inflation and GDP is a forward-looking view covering the period of the coming three years. This is not a forecast in the strict meaning of the word as the projection is constructed under the assumption of constant NBP interest rates. Nevertheless, the NBP projection is considered a valuable indicator of basic economic developments in the future.
- I am not aware of any other Polish or foreign forecasts which would be as reliable in predicting GDP growth in Poland as NBP projections – assured Professor Andrzej Sławiński, Director General of the Economic Institute during the presentation.
The central projection path presents the scenario of developments which are the most likely to materialize. In accordance with the path of the recent projection, inflation will run close to 1.6% by the end of 2015. GDP in Poland is likely to edge up by 1.3% in 2013, by 2.6% in 2014 and by 3.1% in 2015.
One chapter in the projection analyses risks as a result of which the actual developments will deviate from the projection assumptions. Similarly to the previous projections, the overwhelming majority of risks are related to uncertainty about future conditions in the external environment of the Polish economy, in particular in the euro area.
See also: ► Inflation Report, March 2013