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Core inflation in May 2015

Date: 16-06-2015

In May, inflation net of food and energy prices stood at 0.4% (y/y) and was the same as in April. The CPI index in May stood at -0.9% (y/y).

On 16 June 2015, Narodowy Bank Polski posted data on core inflation indices in May 2015. In year-on-year terms, inflation:

  • excluding administered (state-controlled) prices amounted to -1.3%, as against -1,4% a month before;
  • excluding the most volatile prices decreased to -0.3% from -0.2% observed in April;
  • net of food and energy prices, amounted to 0.4%, the same as the month before;
  • the so-called 15-percent trimmed mean (excluding the impact of 15% of the price basket characterised by the lowest and the highest growth rates) stood at -0.2%, as against -0.1% in April.

The May CPI index, announced by GUS on 15 June 2015, amounted to -0.9% (y/y).

Narodowy Bank Polski computes the four core inflation indices on a monthly basis in order to highlight the nature of inflation developments in Poland. The CPI index shows the average price movement across the whole broad basket of consumer goods. By calculating the core inflation indices we can address price changes in various segments of the basket. Thus, sources of inflation can be identified more precisely, and future trends forecasted more accurately. Furthermore, it can be determined to what degree the observed inflation trend is a lasting phenomenon, and to what extent it is driven by e.g. short-lived price hikes triggered by incidental factors.

The core inflation measure the most frequently used by analysts is inflation net of food and energy prices. It captures movements in prices which are fairly responsive to the central bank's monetary policy. On the other hand, energy prices (including fuel prices) are not set domestically, but determined in the global markets, sometimes as a result of speculation. Food prices are largely dependent on, among other things, the weather and conditions prevailing in the domestic and worldwide agricultural markets.

See also: The May 2015 core inflation data »

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