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Core inflation in November 2015

Date: 16-12-2015

NBP data: In November, inflation net of food and energy prices, amounted to 0.2%. In the analysed period, the CPI stood at -0.6% (y/y).

On 16 December 2016, Narodowy Bank Polski released data on core inflation indices in November. In year-on-year terms, inflation:

  • after excluding administered (state-controlled) prices amounted to -0.8%, as against -1.0% a month earlier;
  • after excluding the most volatile prices amounted to -0.2%, thus remaining at the previous two months’ level;
  • net of food and energy prices amounted to 0.2%, as against 0.3% a month earlier;
  • the so-called 15-per cent trimmed mean (excluding the impact of 15% of the price basket characterized by the lowest and highest growth rates) amounted to -0.1%, i.e. the same rate as in the two previously analysed periods.

The November CPI, announced by the Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS) on 15 December 2015, stood at -0.6% (y/y), whereas according to the GUS flash estimates of 30 November, the CPI inflation was projected at -0.5%.

Narodowy Bank Polski computes the four core inflation indices on a monthly basis in order to highlight the nature of inflation developments in Poland. The CPI index shows the average price movement across the whole broad basket of consumer goods. By calculating the core inflation indices, we can address price changes in various segments of the basket. Thus, sources of inflation can be identified more precisely, and future trends forecasted more accurately. Furthermore, it can be determined to what degree the observed inflation is a lasting trend, and to what extent it is driven, for example, by short-lived price hikes triggered by incidental factors.

The core inflation measure most frequently used by analysts is inflation net of food and energy prices. It captures movements in prices which are fairly responsive to the central bank's monetary policy. On the other hand, energy prices (including fuel prices) are not set domestically, but determined in the global markets, sometimes as a result of speculation. Food prices are largely dependent, among others, on the weather and conditions prevailing in the domestic and global agricultural markets.

See also: The November 2015 core inflation data »

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