Conference following the June meeting of the Monetary Policy Council
At the June meeting, the Monetary Policy Council decided to leave the interest rates unchanged.
At the meeting held on 2 and 3 June, the Monetary Policy Council decided to leave the NBP interest rates unchanged. Thus, the reference rate continues at 1.50%, the lombard rate at 2.50%, the deposit rate at 0.50% and the rediscount rate at 1.75%.
“In the opinion of the Council, the annual price growth will remain negative in the coming months, mainly due to the earlier sharp fall in commodity prices. At the same time, the expected gradual acceleration of economic growth, amidst recovery in the euro area and good situation in the domestic labour market, reduce the risk of inflation remaining below the target in the medium term. Therefore, the Council decided to keep NBP interest rates unchanged" – said the MPC in a release justifying its decision after the meeting.
According to the Council's expectations, the CPI should turn positive by the end of the year. Asked about the possible risks related to moving the Polish economy out of deflation, Professor Marek Belka, NBP President, said: “There are always upward and downward risks. The IMF believes that deflation may go up at a lower rate than we think. However, these are minor differences”. “All forecasters expect the CPI to go up by reason of the statistical base. We can't see a further decrease in fuel and food prices, so the statistics will imply – so to speak – normalisation of the situation” he added.
The NBP President also emphasized that speculation concerning the GDP growth path in 2015 is unjustified at present. “It would be entirely unreasonable, and I have no grounds to speculate in this regard today – especially since we are to have the projection in a month's time.” Professor Marek Belka stressed at the same time that should the GDP path in the July projection be changed, this change will be positive. “From an expert’s viewpoint, in the next quarter the continuation of economic growth at a rate similar to the one in the first quarter may be expected” he said.
Besides the Chairperson, the conference was attended by Professor Anna Zielińska-Głębocka and Professor Jerzy Osiatyński. The next MPC meeting is scheduled for 7-8 July 2015.