Conference following the November meeting of the Monetary Policy Council
At the November meeting, the Monetary Policy Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged.
At the meeting held on 3 and 4 November, the Monetary Policy Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged. Thus, the reference rate continues at 1.50%, the lombard rate at 2.50%, the deposit rate at 0.50% and the rediscount rate at 1.75%.
“In the opinion of the Council, price growth will slowly increase in the nearest quarters, supported by the gradual closing of the output gap amid improving economic conditions in the euro area and favourable domestic labour market developments. At the same time, the risk of a sharper slowdown in the emerging economies and the impact this may have on global economic activity, as well as the possibility of commodity prices persisting at low levels, and as a result, low inflation in the environment of the Polish economy, remain the source of uncertainty about the pace of inflation returning to the target,” the Council explained their decision in a release following the meeting.
Commenting on the decision, NBP President, Professor Marek Belka, said that currently the Council is not inclined to change the level of interest rates: “GDP is growing rather steadily, the situation next year should not be worse than it is currently. We hope that in December the inflation rate will finally be positive, although recent months have taught us humility in this regard. This means that today the Council is not inclined to change interest rates.” He then added: “The November projection shows certain minor adjustments, both in the inflation and GDP path. These are downward adjustments, but I repeat – they are minor ones.
During the November meeting, the Council became acquainted with the latest projection of inflation and GDP. According to the projection, under the assumption of unchanged NBP interest rates and taking into account data available until 19 October 2015 (projection cut-off date) – there is a 50-percent probability that the annual price growth will be in the range of -0.9 – -0.8% in 2015 (as compared to -1.1 – -0.4% in the July 2015 projection), 0.4 – 1.8% in 2016 (as compared to 0.7 – 2.5%) and 0.4 – 2.5% in 2017 (as compared to 0.5 – 2.6%). At the same time, the annual GDP growth rate – in line with this projection – will be with a 50-percent probability in the range of 2.9 – 3.9% in 2015 (as compared to 3.0 – 4.3% in the July 2015 projection), 2.3 – 4.3% in 2016 (as compared to 2.3 – 4.5%) and 2.4 – 4.6% in 2017 (as compared to 2.5 – 4.7%).
Apart from the MPC Chairman, the conference was attended by Professor Elżbieta Chojna-Duch and Professor Jerzy Hausner.
The next MPC meeting is scheduled to be held on 1-2 December 2015.