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Consumer inflation expectations in January 2015

Date: 30-01-2015

NBP data: Consumers surveyed by GUS in the first half of January expect prices to rise slightly over the next 12 months.

The NBP release on inflation expectations of consumers, published on 30 January 2015, shows that these expectations have remained low – i.e. below the tolerance band for deviations from the NBP inflation target – for almost two years now.

Quantification of the data obtained in a survey conducted by GUS in the first half of January shows the average inflation index as expected by consumers over the next 12 months to stand at around 0.2% – i.e. the same level as in the previous five months.

The expectations quantification procedure, which translates respondents’ subjective perceptions into the language of official inflation statistics, assumes that the price change in the preceding 12 months as perceived by consumers equals the CPI index available at the time of the survey. In January, this figure was negative at -0.6%. Such a result introduces some difficulty into the interpretation of the survey results. This is because, in line with the structure of the survey question, respondents who expect a price growth are to specify whether the growth will be faster, similar or weaker than presently observed. With this in mind, the January quantification procedure used the latest positive rate of current inflation (i.e. the August 2014 figure of 0.3%) to represent the perceived current inflation, instead of the negative rate of inflation available at the time of the survey. The technical nature of this operation renders the objectivized assessment of inflation expectations more tentative, and the quantification results should be treated as an approximation.

Narodowy Bank Polski examines, on a regular basis, inflation expectations of not only consumers, but also the business community, financial analysts and professional forecasters These provide one of the inputs to the monetary policy decision-making process.

See also: Consumer inflation expectations, January 2015

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