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Core inflation in September 2017

Date: 13-10-2017

NBP data: In September inflation net of food and energy prices amounted to 1.0.% y/y. In the analysed period, the CPI index stood at 2.2% (y/y).

On 13 October, Narodowy Bank Polski posted data on core inflation indices in September 2017. In year-on year terms, inflation:

  • excluding administered (state-controlled) prices stood at 2.3%, as compared with 1.9% in the previous month;
  • excluding the most volatile prices amounted to 1.5% compared to 1.3% in the previous month;
  • inflation net of food and energy prices amounted to 1.0%s compared to 0.7% the month before;
  • the so-called trimmed mean (excluding the impact of 15% of the price basket characterised by the highest and lowest growth rates) was running at 1.9%, compared to 1.7% the month before.

Higher inflation was mainly supported by the pick-up in the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages to 5.0% y/y (as compared with 4.3% y/y in August 2017), as well as prices of non-food products to -0.5% y/y in September as against -1.0% y/y in August 2017 (due to the month's sharper-than-usual increases of 2.1% in the prices of clothing and footwear and the statistical effect of last year's falls in the prices of medical and pharmaceutical products), as well as prices of energy carriers to 2.1% y/y as against 1.6% in August 2017 (fuel prices increased by 2.5% m/m).

Narodowy Bank Polski computes the four core inflation indices on a monthly basis in order to highlight the nature of inflation developments in Poland. The CPI shows only the average price movement across the whole broad basket of consumer goods. By calculating core inflation indices we can address price changes in various segments of the basket. Thus, sources of inflation can be identified more precisely, and future trends forecast more accurately. Furthermore, it can be determined to what degree the observed inflation trend is a lasting phenomenon, and to what extent it is driven by e.g. short-lived price hikes triggered by incidental factors.

The core inflation measure most frequently used by analysts is inflation excluding food and energy prices. It captures movements in prices which are fairly responsive to the central bank's monetary policy. On the other hand, energy prices (including fuel prices) are not set domestically, but determined in the global markets, sometimes as a result of speculation. Also food prices are largely dependent on, among other things, the weather and conditions prevailing in the domestic and global agricultural market.

See also: Core inflation data »

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