Narodowy Bank Polski

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Core inflation in July 2018

Date: 16-08-2018

NBP data: In July 2018, inflation net of food and Energy prices amounted to 0.6%, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 2.0% (y/y).

On 16 August 2018, Narodowy Bank Polski posted data on core inflation indices in July 2018. In year-on-year terms, inflation:

  • excluding administered (state-controlled) prices stood at 2.1%, the same level as the month before;
  • excluding the most volatile prices amounted to 1.1%, the same level as the month before;
  • net of food and energy prices stood at 0.6%, the same level as the month before;
  • the so-called 15-percent trimmed mean (excluding the impact of 15% of the price basket characterized by the highest and lowest growth rates) stood at 1.6%, the same level as the month before.

The stabilization of inflation was driven on the one hand by continued growth of the prices of fuel for private means of transport (by 2.8 p.p. to 18.0% y/y, mostly on the back of rising prices of oil in July as compared with the corresponding month of 2017), and on the other hand, by a decrease in the annual growth of the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages (by 0.5 p.p. to 2.2% y/y), predominantly as a result of lower fruit prices.

Narodowy Bank Polski computes the four core inflation indices on a monthly basis in order to highlight the nature of inflation developments in Poland. The CPI shows the average price movement across the whole broad basket of consumer goods. By calculating the core inflation indices we can address price changes in various segments of the basket. Thus, sources of inflation can be identified more precisely, and future trends forecasted more accurately. Furthermore, it can be determined to what degree the observed inflation trend is a lasting phenomenon, and to what extent it is driven, for example, by short-lived price hikes triggered by incidental factors

The core inflation measure most frequently used by analysts is inflation net of food and energy prices. It captures movements in prices which are fairly responsive to the central bank's monetary policy. On the other hand, energy prices (including fuel prices) are not set domestically, but determined in the global markets, sometimes as a result of speculation. Food prices are largely dependent, among other things, on the weather and conditions prevailing in the domestic and global agricultural markets.

See also: Core inflation data [TABLE] »

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