Core inflation in September 2019
NBP data: In September 2019, inflation net of food and energy prices amounted to 2.4%, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 2.6% (y/y).
On 16 October 2019, Narodowy Bank Polski posted data on core inflation indices in September 2019. In year-on-year terms, inflation:
- excluding administered (state-controlled) prices stood at 2.8%, compared to 3.0% the month before;
- excluding the most volatile prices amounted to 2.4%, compared to 2.3% the month before;
- inflation net of food and energy prices amounted to 2.4%, compared to 2.2% the month before;
- the so-called 15% trimmed mean (excluding the impact of 15% of the price basket characterised by the highest and lowest growth rates) stood at 1.9%, compared to 2.0% the month before.
In September 2019, CPI inflation stood at 2.6% y/y, compared to 2.9% in July 2019. On the one hand, the fall in CPI inflation in September 2019 was driven by slower growth in the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages down to 6.3% (as compared to a 7.2% in August 2019; the result of a decrease in the high annual growth in the prices of vegetables) and a fall in fuel prices (to -2.7% y/y against -0.4% y/y in August 2019 as a result of lower oil prices). On the other hand, September 2019 saw a further increase in growth in the prices of services (to 4.6% y/y as compared to 4.1% y/y in August 2019).
The decrease in the CPI index was accompanied by a decrease in two of the core inflation measures and an increase in the two remaining measures. Inflation excluding food and energy prices rose by 0.2% pp to 2.4% y/y in September 2019. The increase was driven by a further increase in the growth in the prices of services (mainly due to insurance, refuse collection services, and gastronomy, as well as the base effect in the communications sector).
Narodowy Bank Polski computes the four core inflation indices on a monthly basis in order to highlight the nature of inflation developments in Poland. The CPI index shows the average price movement across the whole broad basket of consumer goods. By calculating core inflation indices we can address price changes in various segments of the basket. Thus, sources of inflation can be identified more precisely, and future trends forecast more accurately. Furthermore, it can be determined to what degree the observed inflation trend is a lasting phenomenon, and to what extent it is driven by e.g. short-lived price changes triggered by incidental factors.
The core inflation measure most frequently used by analysts is inflation net of food and energy prices. It captures trends in those prices of goods and services which are fairly responsive to the central bank's monetary policy. On the other hand, energy prices (including fuel prices) are not set domestically, but determined in the global markets, sometimes as a result of speculation. Food prices are largely dependent on, among other things, the weather and conditions prevailing in the domestic and global agricultural market.
See also: Core inflation data »