Inflation and GDP projection
The inflation and GDP projection is prepared by the Economic Institute of the National Bank of Poland and presents a forecast of economic developments under the assumption of constant NBP interest rates. The work involved in the creation of the projection is supervised by the director of the Economic Institute and coordinated by the Bureau of Macroeconomic Forecast. The Management Board of the NBP approves the projection to be submitted to the Monetary Policy Council. The projection constitutes one of the inputs to the Monetary Policy Council's decision making process concerning NBP interest rates.
The projection is prepared three times a year and is published in March, July and November in the fourth chapter of the Inflation Report. The projection covers economic developments up to three years ahead from the publication date.
The projection is based on the macroeconometric model NECMOD.
The current inflation and GDP projection (published on the 13th of July 2015)
|CPI inflation y/y (%) ||GDP y/y(%) |
| || |
| ||2015 ||2016 ||2017 |
|CPI inflation y/y (%) ||-0,8 ||1,5 ||1,6 |
|GDP (%, y/y) ||3,6 ||3,4 ||3,6 |
|Interest rate WIBOR* (p.p.) ||1,75 ||1,71 ||1,71 |
* projection prepared under the assumption of constant interest rates
The next inflation and GDP projection will be published on 11th of November 2015 at 10 o'clock.
Inflation and GDP projection - Archive
Published in Polish and English by Narodowy Bank Polski, tel: +48 22 185 28 88, +48 22 185 23 35