Inflation and GDP projection – July 2021
The inflation and GDP projection is prepared by the Economic Analysis Department of the National Bank of Poland and presents a forecast of economic developments under the assumption of constant NBP interest rates. The work involved in the creation of the projection is coordinated by the Macroeconomic Forecasts Division. The Management Board of the NBP approves the projection to be submitted to the Monetary Policy Council. The projection constitutes one of the inputs to the Monetary Policy Council's decision making process concerning NBP interest rates.
The projection is prepared three times a year and is published in March, July and November in the fourth chapter of the Inflation Report. The projection covers economic developments up to three years ahead from the publication date.
The projection is based on the macroeconometric model NECMOD.
The current inflation and GDP projection (published on the 12th of July 2021)
|CPI inflation y/y (%) ||GDP y/y (%) |
| || |
| ||2021 ||2022 ||2023 |
|CPI inflation y/y (%) ||4.2 ||3.3 ||3.4 |
|GDP y/y (%) ||5.0 ||5.4 ||5.3 |
|interest rate WIBOR 3M*(%) ||0.21 ||0.21 ||0.21 |
* projection prepared under the assumption of constant interest rates
The next inflation and GDP projection will be published on 8th of November 2021.
Inflation and GDP projection - Archive
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