Statistics

Inflation expectations and forecasts

Last update: 04-08-2021

Under the direct inflation targeting strategy, inflation expectations of economic agents are closely monitored by the monetary authorities. Narodowy Bank Polski examines inflation expectations of various groups of agents: consumers, enterprises and professional forecasters.

The data comes from the following surveys: Statistics Poland (GUS) consumer tendency surveys (consumers), the NBP Quick Monitoring Survey (enterprises) and the NBP Survey of Professional Forecasters (professional forecasters).

Inflation expectations of consumers

NBP uses data from the Statistics Poland (GUS) consumer tendency survey. These data are presented monthly in the GUS Statistical Bulletins.

Inflation expectations of enterprises

The presented data show the distribution of responses to the survey question as well as a balance statistic, defined as a weighted difference between fractions of enterprises expecting a rise in prices and fractions of enterprises expecting no change or a fall in prices: B = (E1 + ½E2) − (½E4 + E5), where E1, E2, E4 and E5 denote, respectively, fractions of enterprises claiming that prices will increase more rapidly, will increase at the same rate, will stay the same and will fall. The balance statistic does not inform about the level of expected inflation, because opinions of enterprises have a qualitative form and refer to current inflation, whose value is shown in the survey question. A rise in the balance statistic should be interpreted as a shift in opinions toward higher rises in prices.

Full information about the situation and forecasts of enterprises, based on the NBP Quick Monitoring Survey, is described in the cyclical publications of NBP.

The data is updated on a quarterly basis.

Inflation expectations of experts participating in the NBP Survey of Professional Forecasters

Macroeconomic forecasts of professional forecasters, including forecasts of inflation in various horizons, are available at the NBP Survey of Professional Forecasters website.

The data is updated on a quarterly basis.

NBP interest rates

Reference rate 0.10
Lombard rate 0.50
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Table of 2021-09-17
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Poland

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