Inflation expectations and forecasts
Last update: 27-07-2020
Under the direct inflation targeting strategy, inflation expectations of economic agents are closely monitored by the monetary authorities. Narodowy Bank Polski examines inflation expectations of various groups of agents: consumers, enterprises and professional forecasters. From August 2016 onwards in the section “Inflation expectations and forecasts” we present data on inflation expectations of all the above-mentioned groups of agents. The data comes from surveys: CSO Poland (GUS) Consumer opinion survey, NBP Quick Monitoring (enterprises) and NBP Survey of Professional Forecasters.
The data is updated on quarterly basis.
Inflation expectations of consumers
Data includes a balance statistic, defined as a weighted difference between fractions of respondents expecting rise in prices and fractions of respondents expecting no change or fall in prices: B = (E1 + ½E2) − (½E4 + E5), where E1, E2, E4 and E5 denote, respectively, fractions of respondents claiming that prices will increase more rapidly, will increase at the same rate, will stay the same and will fall. Balance statistic does not inform about the level of expected inflation, because opinions of respondents have qualitative form and refer to perceived inflation. Rise in balance statistic should be interpreted as shift in opinions toward higher rises in prices.
The NBP no longer publishes the quantified measure of consumer inflation expectations. It results, on the one hand, from problems faced while applying a quantification method in the environment of persistent and continuing deflation that were signaled in previous NBP releases, while on the other hand – from intention to present data that is as little as possible affected by assumptions of quantification methods.
Inflation expectations of enterprises
Presented data show distribution of responses to the survey question as well as a balance statistic, analogous to the one calculated in the case of consumers.
Full information about situation and forecasts of enterprises, based on NBP Quick Monitoring, is described in cyclical publications of NBP.
Inflation expectations of experts participating in the NBP Survey of Professional Forecasters
Macroeconomic forecasts of professional forecasters, including forecasts of inflation in various horizons, are available at NBP Survey of Professional Forecasters website.